India has gained the least since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and was penalised the most, while the US, China and the European Union emerged as the biggest beneficiaries from the war.
Indian private sector and State-run refiners continued to receive crude oil from Russian suppliers even after November 21 -- the winding-down date for US sanctions on supplies from leading Russian oil producers imposed in October -- as new intermediaries sprung up in West Asia to sell the oil, according to senior refining sources and ship tracking data.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that the country has held no "direct" talks with the United States as of now and added that it has received messages through some mediators regarding the US' desire for negotiations.
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
Chief negotiators from India and the US are set to begin three-day talks in Washington to recalibrate the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) framework, following significant changes in the US tariff landscape, including a new 10 per cent tariff imposed on all countries.
A senior Iranian legislator has suggested that Tehran could further escalate pressure on its adversaries by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about global supply chain vulnerabilities.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed the West Asia conflict's impact on the global economy, particularly energy security, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He also engaged with GCC ambassadors and his Sri Lankan and German counterparts on the same issue.
Despite Iran allowing 'non-hostile vessels' through the Strait of Hormuz, marine insurance premiums are expected to remain elevated due to persistent high-risk classifications and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with experts cautioning that the threat of attacks and collateral damage still exists.
Hundreds of Indian seafarers are stranded on vessels carrying crude oil, LPG, and LNG in the Persian Gulf due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, causing disruptions to India's energy supplies.
An Indian-flagged LPG vessel successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the number of Indian ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. India is in talks with Iran to ensure safe passage for its tankers, and Indian refiners continue to purchase crude oil and LPG from Iran despite regional tensions.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
There is no cause for concern, as the overall situation arising out of the crisis is firmly under control, the Centre informed while briefing political parties at the all-party meet.
Merchandise exports to the US jumped 23.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $8.3 billion in June, even as India's overall outbound shipments witnessed contraction during the month, according to the data released by the commerce department on Tuesday. The increase in outbound shipments to the US was largely driven by the rush among exporters to utilise America's pause on its plans to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
Qatar, India's largest supplier of imported natural gas, has declared force majeure on deliveries following a halt in production in the wake of an Iranian drone strike -- a disruption that has led to a cut in supplies to Indian industry by up to 40 per cent, sources said.
Benchmark indices tumbled about 2 per cent on Friday, capping one of the most turbulent weeks for domestic equities as investors fretted that the West Asian conflict could drag on for weeks or even months.
'Refiners may soon be forced to adjust operations, curtailing runs as product exports stall and directing output solely to domestic markets.'
An India-flagged LPG tanker, Jag Vikram, has successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz following a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, marking a significant development for India's energy security.
Indian rice exporters are seeking urgent government support to mitigate the impact of shipping disruptions caused by the Iran crisis and instability in key maritime routes. The disruptions have led to increased freight rates, insurance premiums, and fuel costs, impacting domestic prices and exporter profitability.
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
The Indian government has revised its natural gas allocation priorities, placing LPG production alongside CNG and piped cooking gas at the top, due to disruptions in imported gas supplies caused by the conflict in West Asia.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
'Our diplomacy should have been focused on preventing war and avoiding the inevitable disruptions it would cause, posing a real risk to India's growth story,' asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
24 Indian-flagged vessels with 677 Indian seafarers were currently located west of the Strait of Hormuz, and four vessels with 101 Indian seafarers were stationed east of the strategic waterway.
The country's exports rose marginally by 0.61 per cent to $36.56 billion in January, while trade deficit widened to a three-month high of $34.68 billion, government data showed on Monday.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
India's exports jumped by 19.37 per cent to $38.13 billion in November, while imports dipped by 1.88 per cent to $62.66 billion, according to government data released on Monday.
He added that opposition parties were assured that their concerns regarding the impact of the West Asia situation on India and the safety of Indian citizens were addressed in detail.
Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
I am inclined to believe that the Venezuela adventure is not an indication of American strength, alas, but rather of American weakness, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
A resurgence in Saudi Arabian supplies of crude oil to India coupled with an attack on an Iraqi tanker in August carrying crude to Europe may result in improved bargaining power for India with West Asian and Russian suppliers for winter supplies. Shipments of Saudi oil rebounded in September from August, surging to the highest since March while Russian oil shipments rose marginally as Saudi Arabia tried to claw back market share in Asia, according to industry sources and ship tracking data.
